• <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 24:</b> John Richard, sketchbook kept by soldier-artist during last months of Civil War, 55 drawings, 1865. $25,000 to $35,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 24:</b> Guest register for Catskill Mountain House, with signatures of many notable guests, 1839-43, 1846-52. $5,000 to $7,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 24:</b> Manuscript confirmation of arms & nobility, Esquivel y Vargas family, Salvatierra, Guanajuato, Mexico, 1731. $5,000 to $7,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 24:</b> Elizabeth Shoumatoff, 3 watercolor studies for famous “Unfinished Portrait” of FDR, 1945. $40,000 to $60,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 24:</b><br><i>Sa Ga Yean Qua Rash Tow, Coning Vande Maquas alias Coning Brant,</i> engraving by Pieter Schenck, Netherlands, c.1710s. $3,000 to $4,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 24:</b> Stamp from the Stamp Act of 1765, embossed, “II Shillings VI Pence.” $6,000 to $9,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 24:</b><br><i>The Law of God,</i> five volumes, first edition, first Jewish translation of the Pentateuch into English, 1845-46. $6,000 to $9,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 24:</b> Diary of James W. Bentley, a cavalry officer protecting settlers on the Overland Trail, 1865. $15,000 to $25,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 24:</b> Pedro de Arenas, <i>Vocabulario manual de las lenguas castellana y mexicana,</i> complete first edition, Mexico, 1611. $12,000 to $18,000.
  • <center><b>Leland Little Auctions<br>The Important Fall Auction<br>September 19, 2020</b>
    <b>Leland Little, Sep. 19:</b> <i>Bull City Summer Portfolio</i> (Complete Portfolio of 15 Photographs by Alec Soth, Hank Willis Thomas, and Hiroshi Watanabe). $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Leland Little, Sep. 19:</b> Krishna Reddy (Indian, 1925-2018), <i>Three Graces.</i> Mixed color intaglio print on paper, 1958, pencil signed. $2,000 to $4,000.
    <b>Leland Little, Sep. 19:</b> after Georges Braque (French, 1882–1963), <i>Hommage à J. S. Bach.</i> Etching and aquatint in colors, 1950, pencil signed and numbered 277/300. $2,000 to $4,000.
    <center><b>Leland Little Auctions<br>The Important Fall Auction<br>September 19, 2020</b>
    <b>Leland Little, Sep. 19:</b> Heller, Joseph. <i>Catch-22,</i> First Edition (New York Simon & Schuster, Inc., 1961). $500 to $1,000.
    <b>Leland Little, Sep. 19:</b> Rey, Margaret & H. A. <i>Curious George Goes to the Hospital,</i> First Edition. (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1966). $500 to $1,000.
    <b>Leland Little, Sep. 19:</b> Large 1754 Map of St. Croix, Dutch West Indies by Jens Michelsen Beck. Sheet 21.25 x 31.75 in.; DOA 31.25 x 41.25 in. $300 to $600.
  • <center><b>Hindman Auctions<br>Selections from the Library of<br>Gerald and Barbara Weiner<br>Live and Online<br>October 8, 2020 / 10am CT</b>
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> DARWIN, Charles Robert. <i>On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection.</i> London: W. Clowes and Sons for John Murray, 1859. [With] autograph note signed. $60,000 to $80,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> [FINE PRESS & LIVRE D'ARTISTE]. -- [KELMSCOTT PRESS]. CHAUCER, Geoffrey. <i>The Works ... now newly imprinted.</i> Edited by F.S. Ellis. Hammersmith: Kelmscott Press, 1896. $60,000 to $80,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> LAWRENCE, Thomas Edward. <i>Seven Pillars of Wisdom, a triumph.</i> [London: Privately Printed], 1926. $60,000 to $80,000.
    <center><b>Hindman Auctions<br>Selections from the Library of<br>Gerald and Barbara Weiner<br>Live and Online<br>October 8, 2020 / 10am CT</b>
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> SHAKESPEARE, William. <i>Mr. William Shakespear's Comedies, Histories, and Tragedies…</i> London, Printed for H. Herringman, E. Brewster, R. Chiswell, and R. Bentley, 1685. $60,000 to $80,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> AUDUBON, John James. <i>The Birds of America…</i> [1839-] 1840-1844. -- AUDUBON, John James and John BACHMAN. <i>The Quadrupeds of North America.</i> 1849-1854. $60,000 to $80,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> OGILBY, John, trans. [MONTANUS, Arnoldus]. <i>America: being the latest, and most Accurate Description of the New World…</i> London: Printed by the Author, 1671. $30,000 to $40,000.
    <center><b>Hindman Auctions<br>Selections from the Library of<br>Gerald and Barbara Weiner<br>Live and Online<br>October 8, 2020 / 10am CT</b>
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> HOBBES, Thomas. <i>Leviathan, or The Matter, Forme, & Power of a Common-Wealth Ecclesiasticall and Civill.</i> London: printed for Andrew Crooke, 1651. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> BLACKWELL, Elizabeth. <i>A Curious Herbal, containing Five Hundred Cuts of the most useful Plant which are now used in the Practice of Physick…</i> London: John Nourse, 1739. $15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> MILTON, John. <i>Paradise Lost.</i> London: Printed by S. Simmons ... to be sold by T. Helder, 1669. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <center><b>Hindman Auctions<br>Selections from the Library of<br>Gerald and Barbara Weiner<br>Live and Online<br>October 8, 2020 / 10am CT</b>
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> MALCOLM X. Typed letter signed ("Malcolm X"), to Alex Haley. Cairo, Egypt, 18 September 1964. " 1 page, 8vo. $6,000 to $8,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> TOLKIEN, John Ronald Reuel. Autograph letter signed (“JRRT”). To George Sayer, Oxford, 7 August 1952. 2 pages, 8vo, creased; morocco folding case. $4,000 to $6,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> WRIGHT, Frank Lloyd. Autograph manuscript signed ("Frank Lloyd Wright"), entitled "To the Countryside." N.p. [Taliesin?], [June 1926]. 2 pages, 4to, creased. $4,000 to $6,000.
  • <b>Il Ponte Casa d’Aste, Sep. 22:</b> CORONELLI, Vincenzo (1650-1718) - <i>Atlante Veneto.</i> Venezia: Domenico Padovani, 1690. €15,000 to €20,000.
    <b>Il Ponte Casa d’Aste, Sep. 22:</b> [CANALETTO] - VISENTINI, Antonio; da Giovanni Antonio CANAL (detto 'Il Canaletto'). - <i>Urbis Venetiarum prospectus celebriores.</i> Venezia, 1754. €12,000 to €18,000.
    <b>Il Ponte Casa d’Aste, Sep. 22:</b> RAMELLI, Agostino - <i>Le diverse et artificiose machine nelle quali si contengono uarij et artificiosi mouimenti…</i> Paris: presso l'autore, 1588. €6,000 to €9,000.
    <b>Il Ponte Casa d’Aste, Sep. 22:</b> <i>Anthologia Graeca Planudea [in grego]</i> - Edita da: Janus Lascaris (1445-1535). Firenze: Lorenzo di Francesco de Alopa, 11 Agosto 1494. €10,000 to €15,000.

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - February - 2016 Issue

Book Prices at Auction Slipped 7% Last Year

05820f6b-91e5-41d2-aef8-dc8f5d00afea

This is not likely to be a major surprise to those in the book trade, but results compiled from book and paper auctions showed a 7% decline in prices in 2015 from the previous year. After several years of increases, nervousness about the economy, perhaps even more in Europe than America, has taken its toll. Threats to the viability of the European union, financial meltdown in Greece, Russian meddling in eastern Europe, threats of terrorism emanating from a complex web of brutal rivalries in the Middle East, and a shattering of the economic miracle of China, have combined to create an uncertain economic environment. Economic uncertainty in turn leads to people holding tightly to their wallets. Even in America, where the economy has been relatively healthy, fear often holds sway, as witnessed by the unusual group of politicians leading the polls for the 2016 presidential election. The book trade is not immune to events swirling around it.

 

The median price* of all lots in the books and paper field declined by 7% last year, dropping from $286 to $266. That compares to a 5% increase the previous year. The result is that prices were also 2% lower than in 2013, but still 5% higher than 2012. Prices had mostly been rising since the major recession that hit in 2008.

 

The decline may have caught the auction houses slightly off guard. The percentage of lots selling above and below auction house estimates also adjusted a little. In 2015, only 59% sold for over the high estimate, versus 62% the year before. Similarly, 22% sold below the low estimate in 2015, compared to 20% in 2014.

 

The sell through rate also slipped, but only marginally. Rounded off, the percentage was 73% vs. 74% in 2014, but in actuality, the decline was only 0.2%, from 73.6% to 73.4%. The total number of items offered and sold were at record highs, though only slightly ahead of the previous year. A total of 422,909 lots were offered in 2015 vs. 413,503 in 2014, while 310,369 sold compared to 304,544 the year before.

 

The decline in prices was reflected by a shift in the price ranges in which lots were sold. While overall sales increased by 6,000, there was an increase in sales of 9,000 at prices from $0-$250. Sales at $250-$500 were virtually the same, while there was a decline of 3,000 lots sold in the $500 and up price range.

 

We have been aware that pricing has been challenging at the low to medium price points, but, perhaps somewhat surprising is it was soft at the higher end as well. Fewer sales in the $500 and up range, and lower medians at auction houses that cater to the highest level of buyers, were reflective of this softness. Perhaps we could have foreseen this from the Top 500 prices paid at auction we published last month (click here). While the top price paid at auction doesn't tell us much about the market in general, by the time you get to the 500th most expensive item, it frequently reflects a trend at the top. After several years of rising, the price of number 500 declined from $79,800 to $74,200, or the same percentage as the decline in the overall median price – 7%.

 

What does this portend for the future? The answer is no one knows. In the past, not even trends seen in the last quarter of the year necessarily carried over to the next. It's like the stock market. Last year was great for the market. Who would have thought it would tumble so in January? Trends last until they don't. Will the stock market now resume its climb, or continue to fall? You will hear voices on both sides, and one side will be right simply because one side has to be right, not because some people really know any better than others. The same is true of prices in the book market. Will they go up or down? We can speculate, but for a certain answer, come back here next year. We will tell you then.

 

 

 

 

*we use median price, the price at which 50% of the lots sold for more, and 50% sold for less, rather than average price as the average can be skewed by a very small number of extremely high priced items. Just one lot sold for $4 million can add $10 to the average price of 400,000 other lots! That said, we note the average price also fell last year, from $2,307 to $2,030 (12%).

 

Those who have followed our reports for a long time may notice that median prices today are considerably lower than they were in the first decade of this century. Most of that is unrelated to changes in prices of comparable items. We saw the opening of some very high volume online auctions selling lower priced material a few years ago. That brought median prices down considerably. However, the mix of those auctions to traditional auctions did not change this past year, making it once again an apples-to-apples comparison.


Posted On: 2016-02-01 22:59
User Name: ckorczak

Wonderful. analysis.


Posted On: 2016-02-02 17:42
User Name: Fattrad1

Michael,

Obviously you are not a astute follower of the equity and debt markets, the S&P 500 was only fractionally up last year and the bond markets struggled.

fattrad
RIA/bookseller


Rare Book Monthly

  • <center><b>Koller International Auctions<br>Books, Manuscripts & Autographs<br>23 September 2020</b>
    <b>Koller Auctions, Sep. 23:</b> Diderot, [Denis] - D'Alembert, [Jean Le Rond]. <i>Encyclopédie, ou dictionnaire raisonné des sciences, des arts et des métiers...</i> 17 text volumes, 4 supplement volumes, 11 plate volumes. €21,930 to €30,700.
    <b>Koller Auctions, Sep. 23:</b> [Philipon, Ch.]. <i>La Caricature,</i> Journal. No. 1-251 in 4 volumes. With 526 lithographs by H. Daumier, Grandville, A. Devéria, P. Gavarni, M. Delaporte, Adam, Raffet, Huot et al. €7,020 to €10,530.
    <b>Koller Auctions, Sep. 23:</b> Chagall, Marc. <i>Le Cirque</i>, Paris 1967. With 38 (of which 23 coloured and 3 double-page) original lithographs by M. Chagall. €61,400 to €78,950.
    <b>Koller Auctions, Sep. 23:</b> L'Isle, Guillaume de. <i>Atlas nouveau, contenant toutes les parties du monde.</i> [AND:] Sanson, Guillaume. <i>Inleidinge tot de geographie. 3 volumes.</i> €19,300 to €28,070.
    <center><b>Koller International Auctions<br>Books, Manuscripts & Autographs<br>23 September 2020</b>
    <b>Koller Auctions, Sep. 23:</b> Roberts, David. <i>The Holy Land, Syria, Idumea, Arabia, Egypt, & Nubia…</i> Lithographed by Louis Haghe. 6 parts in 6 volumes. 238 original lithographs and 2 engraved maps. €19,300 to €28,070.
    <b>Koller Auctions, Sep. 23:</b> Berlèse, Lorenzo and Johann Jakob Jung. <i>Iconographie du genre camellia ou description et figures des camellia les plus beaux et les plus rares.</i> 3 volumes. With 301 coloured engraved plates. €17,540 to €21,930.
    <b>Koller Auctions, Sep. 23:</b> Merian, Maria Sybilla. <i>Over de voortteeling en wonderbaerlyke veranderingen der Surinaamsche insecten...</i> With engraved frontispiece, title vignette and 72 copperplates. €17,540 to €26,320.
    <b>Koller Auctions, Sep. 23:</b> Burckhardt, Johann Ludwig, Explorer. Collection of 24 handwritten letters from his youth and student days to his eldest (step) brother, Johann Burckhardt-Gemuseus and his wife Anna Elisabeth. €2,630 to €4,390.
  • <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts<br>and Works on Paper<br>25 September 2020</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> Chagall (Marc). <i>Cirque,</i> one of 270 copies on Arches signed by the artist, 38 lithographs, 23 colour, Paris, Tériade Éditeur, 1967. £100,000 to £150,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> Sangorski (Alberto).- Poe (Edgar Allan). <i>Annabel Lee and Other Poems,</i> illuminated manuscript in gold and colours, bound in turquoise morocco tooled in gilt and inlaid with 35 jewels, [c.1928]. £50,000 to £70,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> Darwin (Charles) and Alfred R. Wallace. “On the Tendency of Species to form Varieties...,” contained in <i>Journal of the Proceedings of the Linnean Society,</i> 1859. £12,000 to £18,000.
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts<br>and Works on Paper<br>25 September 2020</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> Ornament.- Basque metalwork.- Zuloaga (Eusebio) and Workshop. Collection of twenty-three original ornament designs for damascening, [19th century]. £8,000 to £12,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> Arms and Armour.- Rugendas.- <i>Der Harnisch Von Seinem Entstehen Bis Zu Seinem Wiedervergehen In Bildern Dargestelt Und Gezeichnet,</i> [1714 and later]. £6,000 to £8,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> Webster (John). <i>A Monumental Columne, erected to the liuing memory of the euer-glorious Henry, late Prince of Wales,</i> rare first edition, Printed by N[icholas]. O[kes]. for William Welby, 1613. £6,000 to £8,000.
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts<br>and Works on Paper<br>25 September 2020</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> Donne (John). <i>Poems, by J.D. with elegies on the Authors Death,</i> first edition, Printed by M[iles]. F[lesher]. for Iohn Marriot, 1633. £6,000 to £8,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> Brangwyn (Frank). <i>Venice,</i> oil on canvas, [c. 1908]. £4,000 to £6,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> Sewell (Anna). <i>Black Beauty: his Grooms and Companions. The Autobiography of a Horse,</i> first edition, original cloth, [1877]. £3,000 to £4,000.
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts<br>and Works on Paper<br>25 September 2020</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> Gray (John Edward). <i>Gleanings from the Knowsley Menagerie and Aviary at Knowsley Hall,</i> first edition, one of c.100 copies privately printed for the author, 1850. £3,000 to £4,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> George III (King). Warrant signed "George R" for the payment of £60,634 granted for the North American Provinces to the Province of Massachusetts Bay, D.s., manuscript, [c. 1761-62]. £2,000 to £2,500.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 25:</b> Mecca, Medina & Damascus.- 2 manuscript plans of Mecca and El Medinah and a map of Damascus, 3 detailed pen and ink drawings with 3pp. of manuscript notes, [late 19th century]. £1,000 to £1,500.
  • <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>A further selection of<br>16th and 17th century English books from the Fox Pointe Manor Library<br>24 September 2020</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> Locke (John). <i>An Essay Concerning Humane Understanding in Four Books,</i> first edition, second issue, 1690. £12,000 to £18,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> Plutarch. <i>The lives of the noble Grecians and Romanes, compared together by that graue learned philosopher and historiographer, Plutarke of Chæronea,</i> first edition of this translation, 1579. £8,000 to £12,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> [Allott (Robert, editor)]. <i>Wits Theater of the little World,</i> first edition, 1599. £5,000 to £7,000.
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>A further selection of 16th and 17th century English books<br>from the Fox Pointe Manor Library<br>24 September 2020</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> Execution of Quakers in Boston.- Stephenson (Marmaduke). <i>A Call from Death to Life,</i> first edition, 1660. £4,000 to £6,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> Boyle (Robert). <i>The sceptical chymist: or Chymico-physical doubts & paradoxes…,</i> 2 parts in 1 vol., second edition, 1680. £3,500 to £4,500.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> Atlases.- Morden (Robert). <i>[Geography Rectified: or, A Description of the World],</i> [c.1688]. £3,000 to £4,000.
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>A further selection of 16th and 17th century English books<br>from the Fox Pointe Manor Library<br>24 September 2020</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> Bread.- Penkethman (John). <i>Artachthos or a New Booke declaring the Assise or Weight of Bread,</i> 1638. £2,000 to £3,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> Anatomy.- Collins (Samuel). <i>A Systeme of Anatomy, treating of the Body of Man, Beasts, Birds, Fish, Insects, and Plants,</i> 2 vol., first edition, 1685. £2,000 to £3,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> Wine.- [Ames (Richard)]. <i>The Bacchanalian Sessions; or The Conten' tion of Liquors: With a Farewel to Wine,</i> first edition, 1693. £2,000 to £3,000.
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>A further selection of 16th and 17th century English books<br>from the Fox Pointe Manor Library<br>24 September 2020</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> Witchcraft.- Bekker (Balthasar). <i>The World Bewitch'd; or, An Examination of the Common Opinions Concerning Spirits,</i> vol. 1 (all published), first English edition, 1695. £2,000 to £3,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> Great Plague and Great Fire of London prophesied.- Lilly (William). <i>Monarchy or No Monarchy in England,</i> first edition, 1651. £1,500 to £2,000.
    <b>Forum Auctions, Sep. 24:</b> Swimming.- Thevenot (Melchisédec). <i>The Art of Swimming. Illustrated by Proper Figures. With Advice for Bathing,</i> first edition in English, 1699. £1,500 to £2,000.

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